2022 AFC Championship Game odds, spread, line: Chiefs vs. Bengals picks, predictions from expert who’s 24-8

The Kansas City Chiefs will become the first team in NFL history to host four straight AFC Championship Games when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in the 2022 NFL playoffs. The Chiefs (14-5) will try to become just the fourth team ever to advance to three consecutive Super Bowls, joining Miami (1971-73), Buffalo (1990-93) and New England (2016-18). Coach Andy Reid led Kansas City to a Super Bowl title in 2020 and has 19 career playoff wins, tied for third-most by a head coach. The Bengals (12-7), who advanced to their third AFC Championship Game in franchise history, are trying to earn their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1988.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 3 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a seven-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 54.5. Before you make any Bengals vs. Chiefs picks or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine’s top Chiefs expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2021 campaign, Hartstein was 351-291 all-time on NFL sides, including 326-280 against the spread. He is returning more than $2,200 for $100 bettors.

In addition, Hartstein has an amazing 24-8 record on his last 32 against-the-spread picks involving Kansas City, returning $1,500. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in another confident against the spread pick for Bengals vs. Chiefs on Sunday. You can only see it at SportsLine. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Bengals vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Bengals spread: Kansas City -7
  • Chiefs vs. Bengals over-under: 54.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bengals money line: Cincinnati +270, Kansas City -340
  • CIN: Bengals are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games
  • KC: Over has hit in seven straight Chiefs games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has completed 63 of 83 passes (75.9 percent) in the NFL playoffs 2022 for 782 yards and eight touchdowns. He has been picked off just once and has a rating of 131.7. He also leads the Chiefs in rushing, carrying 10 times for 98 yards and one touchdown. Last week against the Bills, Mahomes completed 33 of 44 passes (75 percent) for 378 yards and three touchdowns.

Mahomes’ favorite target has been wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has 16 receptions this postseason for 207 yards (12.9 average) and two touchdowns. Hill also has four explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 64 yards. He has converted eight first downs and has 106 yards after the catch. In the win over Buffalo, Hill caught 11 of 13 passes for 150 yards (13.6 average) and a score.

Why the Bengals can cover

Despite that, Kansas City is not a lock to cover the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread. That’s because Cincinnati has shown no fear and is 2-0 this postseason after having gone 0-8 from 1990 until the start of the 2022 NFL playoffs. Quarterback Joe Burrow completed 28 of 37 attempts (75.7 percent) for 348 yards and a 93.1 rating last week in the win over the Titans. He has a 101.4 rating this postseason and set franchise records in passing yards (4,611) and touchdown passes (34) during the regular season.

Running back Joe Mixon had 105 yards from scrimmage, including 54 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown against Tennessee. During the regular season, Mixon ranked third in the NFL with a career-high 1,205 rushing yards and fourth with a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns. He will be looking for his fifth game in a row with 75 yards from scrimmage. He had 86 yards from scrimmage in the Week 17 meeting with Kansas City.

How to make Chiefs vs. Bengals picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he’s leaning over the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bengals vs. Chiefs in the NFL playoffs 2022? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who’s a blistering 24-8 on Chiefs picks.

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