2022 Super Bowl odds, prop bets, predictions: Super Bowl LVI picks to consider for Rams vs. Bengals
We are just over a week away from Super Bowl LVI, a Sunday which has truly evolved into a legitimate sports gambling holiday. There are cross-sports props, Super Bowl squares, Over/Under for length of the national anthem and of course, the coin toss. If you aren’t enticed by these special bets, then you aren’t the fan I want at my Super Bowl party.
I have been looking over the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl props offered by Caesars Sportsbook, and have identified a handful that I’m going to put money on. These props will be more on the interesting side, unlike your typical Over/Under receiving yards. For example, I live and die by Tails when it comes to the coin flip, but these props have more thought put into them. Let’s go ahead and jump in.
Starting QB to have negative rushing yardage
No (-145)
Joe Burrow does not have a good offensive line, as evidenced by the record-tying nine sacks the Bengals allowed in the divisional round against the Tennessee Titans, but this is the NFL, not college. Sacks don’t count towards a quarterback’s negative rushing yards, so Burrow actually had five rushing yards against Tennessee. The second-year signal-caller had just two games with negative rushing yards in 19 games played this year. Now, one of those did come against the Las Vegas Raiders in Super Wild Card Weekend, but we saw Burrow run a bit against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, gaining a total of 25 yards — which tied a season-high.
As for Matthew Stafford, he’s obviously no Michael Vick, but he hasn’t had a game with negative rushing yards since Week 17. He had seven games where he rushed for negative yardage this year, but he’s rushed for at least six yards in each postseason game.
Will there be a second-half lead change
Yes (+130)
In Championship Weekend, both the Bengals and Rams came back from double-digit deficits to win their respective games. That’s just the second time that has happened on Championship Sunday in both games since 1970. There was no second-half lead change in Super Bowl LV when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers smacked the Chiefs, but there certainly was one in Super Bowl LIV, when the Chiefs came back from down 10 in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers. I’m not predicting a miraculous comeback next Sunday, but in a close game, we should get a lead change in the second half.
The first-score field goal play
(Rams FG +400, Bengals FG +400)
The lines for first score of the game are TD (-170) and FG/Safety (+140). There’s also a prop for first specific scoring play of the game. Both Bengals made field goal and Rams made field goal are +400. If you put $50 on each team-specific field goal prop and a made field goal is the first score, it would result in a $150 total win (subtracting the $50 hedged on the other team.) Placing your $100 on the normal first score made field goal prop would be just a $140 win.
In two out of three Bengals playoff games, a field goal was the first points of the match. In one out of three Rams playoff games the field goal came first.
Matthew Stafford yards of first completion
Under 7.5 (+100)
I have to be honest, the juice on this prop confuses me. Stafford’s first completions in each playoff game haven’t gone for more than six yards. I envision a five-yard out route by Cooper Kupp, or a slant that goes for six yards.
What will happen first for Bengals
Punt (-170) or Score (+140)
A bit juicy, but I like this prop. The Bengals scored on their first drive of the game against the Raiders and the Titans, but did not do so against the Chiefs. That Cincy offense has plenty of weapons, but are they really going to hit the ground running right after kickoff? The Rams have a good defense, plus they haven’t allowed a score on a first drive all postseason, and have forced two three-and-outs on those first three defensive starts.
