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2023 Citrus Bowl prediction, odds, line, spread: LSU vs. Purdue picks, best bets from proven model

Teams licking their wounds from getting thrashed in their respective conference championship games meet on Monday when the 16th-ranked LSU Tigers battle the Purdue Boilermakers in the 2023 Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla. The Tigers (9-4), who won the SEC West with a 6-3 record, were throttled 50-30 by Georgia in the SEC title game on Dec. 3. The Boilermakers (8-5), who won the Big Ten West with a 6-3 record, were roughed up by Michigan 43-22 in the Big Ten Championship that same day. Purdue is 11-9 in bowl games, while LSU is 29-24-1. Both teams were hit hard with NFL opt-outs with big names like LSU receiver Kayshon Boutte, LSU defensive end BJ Ojulari and Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell all set to miss Monday’s game. 

Kickoff from Camping World Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. This will be the first-ever meeting between the teams. The Tigers are 14.5-point favorites in the latest LSU vs. Purdue odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 56. Before making any Purdue vs. LSU picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and Citrus Bowl 2023 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Purdue vs. LSU: 

  • LSU vs. Purdue spread: LSU -14.5
  • LSU vs. Purdue over/under: 56 points
  • LSU vs. Purdue money line: LSU -600, Purdue +430
  • LSU: The Tigers are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games following an ATS loss
  • PUR: The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC opponents
  • LSU vs. Purdue picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. LSU Tigers

Why LSU can cover

Junior quarterback Jayden Daniels powers the LSU offense and leads them in both rushing and passing. The transfer from Arizona State completed 254 of 371 passes (68.5%) for 2,774 yards and 16 touchdowns with three interceptions for a rating of 143.9. He added 180 carries for 818 yards (4.5 average) on the ground with 11 touchdowns. He threw for over 200 yards and rushed for 100 or more in the same game three times, including in a 41-10 win over UAB on Nov. 19. In that game, he completed 22 of 29 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown, and rushed 12 times for 111 yards and a score.

Daniels’ top target has been sophomore wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers caught 63 passes for 854 yards (13.6 average) and two touchdowns during the regular season, including a long of 60 yards. Nabers was a bright spot for the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game, catching five passes for 128 yards and one touchdown.

Why Purdue can cover

Despite that, the Tigers are not a lock to cover the LSU vs. Purdue spread. That’s because the Boilermakers had the best passing offense in the Big Ten, averaging 276.6 yards through the air in league games. Sixth-year quarterback Austin Burton will lead Purdue, after O’Connell elected to prepare for the NFL Draft. Burton is in his third season at Purdue following the first three years of his career at UCLA. The Citrus Bowl will mark the third career start for Burton. His first start came in 2019 against Oregon State, when he threw for 236 yards for UCLA. He has one start for Purdue, a 28-26 win over FAU earlier this season. In that game, he completed 21 of 29 passes (72.4%) for 166 yards and three touchdowns and one interception.

Freshman running back Devin Mockobee leads the rushing attack. The walk-on carried 182 times for 920 yards (5.1 average) and nine touchdowns. He had a season-long run of 68 yards. Mockobee set the school record for most rushing yards and attempts by a freshman. He has surpassed 100 yards rushing in a game four times, including a season-high 178 yards and one touchdown against Nebraska on Oct. 15.

How to make Purdue vs. LSU picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 53 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins LSU vs. Purdue in the Citrus Bowl? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.

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