With the Los Angeles Rams‘ Super Bowl LVI victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, the 2021 NFL season is in the books. All fans will miss football over the next six months, and bettors will certainly miss getting action on lines. But don’t get too sad yet, because Caesars Sportsbook has already released Super Bowl odds and MVP odds for next year!
We covered our Super Bowl 2023 value picks earlier this week, so now it’s time to make some MVP predictions. Caesars has dozens of options when it comes to MVP candidates. The players with the longest odds listed are Cam Akers, Kenny Golladay, Bradley Chubb, Melvin Gordon and Darius Leonard, who are all listed at +50000 apiece. Below, we will list the top 21 candidates for 2022 NFL MVP and offer a few picks of our own.
A couple things to note first before we jump into the picks. A quarterback has won the MVP award every year since 2012, and a non-QB or non-RB hasn’t won the award since 1986. This means I’m not going to get cute with my bets. I’m looking at quarterbacks. Were Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor legitimate MVP candidates this past year? Yes. But the way this award seems to work, it’s tough for them to win. If I’m placing money on a non-QB to win MVP, I’ll take Derrick Henry (+1800) since he ran for 2,000 yards two years ago and was on an absolute tear this season before his foot injury.
Another takeaway from this list: Tom Brady at +4500?! Didn’t he just retire? Caesars Sportsbook said that this line is more of a tribute to his age. If you bet on Brady and he indeed sits out all year, you’ll get your money back!
“If [Brady] doesn’t play, people would get their money back who bet on him,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Obviously people have changed their minds before about retirement, so it wouldn’t be the first time if Brady flipped. We made him 45/1 just to match his age; he’d be turning 45 in August just before next season starts.”
Finally, Aaron Rodgers is tied atop the odds leaderboard with Patrick Mahomes. He could accomplish what fellow Green Bay Packers legend Brett Favre did in the 1990s by winning three straight MVP awards, but since that sounds insane in this day and age, I’ll be staying away from that.
Let’s take a look at three MVP candidates you should consider putting money on.
Joe Burrow (+1200): “Joe Cool” threw for 4,611 yards (sixth), 34 touchdowns (eighth) and 14 interceptions (eighth-highest) in 2021. He has a legitimate running back in Joe Mixon and an unselfish wide receiving corps headlined by rising star Ja’Marr Chase. Imagine what he could do with a half-decent offensive line! Burrow was sacked a total of 19 times in the playoffs, which is the most times a quarterback has been sacked in a single postseason in the Super Bowl era. In all (regular season and postseason), Burrow was sacked 70 times, the third-most in a season in NFL history. Finding protection for him will be something the Bengals must focus on this offseason.
Burrow is a legitimate franchise quarterback and proved to the NFL world that he’s a star through Cincy’s incredible postseason run. He also seems like a guy who will take that Super Bowl loss personally, and allow it to fuel him moving forward. Burrow has all the weapons he needs to put up video game numbers, and he’s becoming more and more experienced.
Dak Prescott (+2200): The quarterback of “America’s Team” had a career year with 4,449 passing yards (seventh), 37 touchdowns (T-fourth) and 10 interceptions (T-18th highest). Prescott actually received an MVP vote in his rookie season and seemed to hang around in the MVP race this past year. Dallas retained both of its coordinators this offseason as well, so it’s possible Prescott could have an even better campaign in 2022. Being on the Dallas Cowboys doesn’t hurt either.
Kyler Murray (+2500): Yes, there’s a lot of noise surrounding Murray right now, but let me give you my take on it: I think it’s extension-related and that Murray is also just upset with how the Arizona Cardinals‘ 2021 season ended. He’s not pushing for a change of scenery.
Now that that’s out of the way, Murray was the MVP frontrunner this past season for about half the year before he was sidelined for three games due to injury. The Cardinals didn’t look the same when he returned to the lineup, as they went 2-4 to finish out the regular season and were stomped by the rival Rams in the playoffs. Still, this Cardinals team went 11-6 and has improved every year with Kliff Kingsbury, and the former No. 1 overall pick has the kind of electric playmaking ability that could help him stand out in the MVP race.